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Computers, Cortex, Cosmos, and Chess
Chess is often a potent (however hackneyed) metaphor in films because of the many ways it provides insight on the human mind, human interaction, and humans’ relationship with machines. In his 1750 article, “The Morals of Chess”, Benjamin Franklin argues that chess teaches man the value of circumspection. Today, neuroscientists like Jonah Lehrer, argue that chess can teach us something about the nature of intuition.
Although we tend to think of experts as being weighted down by information, their intelligence dependent on a vast set of facts, experts are actually profoundly intuitive. When experts evaluate a situation, they don’t systematically compare all the available options or consciously analyze the relevant information. Carlsen, for instance, doesn’t compute the probabilities of winning if he moves his rook to the left rather than the right. Instead, experts naturally depend on the emotions generated by their experience. Their prediction errors – all those mistakes they made in the past – have been translated into useful knowledge, which allows them to tap into a set of accurate feelings they can’t begin to explain. Neils Bohr said it best: an expert is “a person who has made all the mistakes that can be made in a very narrow field.” From the perspective of the brain, Bohr was absolutely right.
And this is why we shouldn’t be surprised that a chess prodigy raised on chess computer programs would be even more intuitive than traditional grandmasters. The software allows him to play more chess, which allows him to make more mistakes, which allows him to accumulate experience at a prodigious pace.
Although ‘man vs machine’ has often been the story of chess computers, they don’t get enough credit for how their analytical way of looking at chess has improved human play. In the New York Review of Books, Garry Kasparov discusses the relationship between the human mind and artificial intelligence in chess programs. It turns out that computer programs don’t (can’t) just process every move imaginable finding the perfect solution to the game. The numbers for that are far too great. Thus, man’s tiny place in the universe is once again confirmed while simultaneously shedding light on the amazing power of our minds in the face of the tremendous.
The number of legal chess positions is 1040, the number of different possible games, 10120. Authors have attempted various ways to convey this immensity, usually based on one of the few fields to regularly employ such exponents, astronomy. In his book Chess Metaphors, Diego Rasskin-Gutman points out that a player looking eight moves ahead is already presented with as many possible games as there are stars in the galaxy. Another staple, a variation of which is also used by Rasskin-Gutman, is to say there are more possible chess games than the number of atoms in the universe.
How many other games allow us to peer so deeply into our technology, our psychology, our universe?
The Great American Taboo: Democracy is Overrated
Democracy is a morally necessary tool for a legitimate state and social contract, but the reality is that it is also a mechanism for choosing irrational policies. As Andreas Kluth, a correspondent for The Economist, said about democracy in a debate on if California is failed state, “James Madison didn’t want [the word] even used in the constitution of the country, because he was afraid—they had studied ancient Athens which was a failure because of direct democracy. They had studied Republican Rome, which was very stable, they wanted Rome, not Athens.”
What Bryan Caplan argues for voters applies to the religious, “If agents care about both material wealth and irrational beliefs, then as the price of casting reason aside rises, agents consume less irrationality (p. 123).” The price for an individual consuming irrationality, whether it is in the voting booth or the church pew is often small, but in aggregate for society the cost can be very high. Although Caplan’s book is about political beliefs he, to his credit, spots the connection with religion. He writes, “Human beings want their religion’s answers to be true. They often want it so badly that they avoid counterevidence, and refuse to think about whatever evidence falls in their laps[...] Once you admit that preferences over beliefs are relevant in religion it is hard to compartmentalize the insight (p. 15).”
Overdosing on Nothing
I love this idea. Some clever Brits are staging a mass “overdose” of homeopathic remedies at 10:23am on January 30th. This highlights the fact that NO ACTUAL MEDICINE is in these pills. They are sugar pills and at best aspire to be placebos.
What is homeopathy?
Homeopathy is an unscientific and absurd pseudoscience, yet it persists today as an accepted complementary medicine.
Ask many people what they think homeopathy is, and you’ll be told “it’s herbal medicine” or “it’s all-natural”. Few realise that it’s been proven not to work; even fewer know it involves substances so dilute that there’s nothing left in them.
Why I Support President Obama
The President visited House Republicans on Friday to have an exchange on their differing views on a host of issues and to try to get past the bitter partisanship gridlocking Washington. Please watch these videos, the first is President Obama’s introductory speech and the second is a revealing Q&A with the Republicans. Once again, the President acts like a serious adult ready and willing to honestly tackle the problems facing our nation.
[update]: I tracked down the poll Obama references in these videos about the popularity of the component parts of the (unpopular) stimulus package. The tax cuts were a little less popular than he stated, but his main point remains. If you break it down, all the parts are greatly more popular than the whole; I can’t help but see this as another example of our sad political/media reality.
Confirm Bernanke
He may not be perfect but he’s the best choice for continuing on the path away from economic collapse. In a New York Times op-ed, Alan Blinder advocates support for his friend and former colleague.
[H]is job performance since, say, October 2008 has been superlative. To cite just a few examples, Mr. Bernanke led the Fed to lower its interest rates to virtually zero in December 2008 and then to hold them there. The central bank also invented approaches to lending and purchasing assets that breathed some life into moribund markets like commercial paper and mortgage-backed securities. It led the highly successful “stress tests” of 19 large financial institutions last spring.
The success of these policies is demonstrable. The simplest and most objective measures of financial distress are the differences, or “spreads,” between various (risky) interest rates and the corresponding (risk-free) Treasury rates. During the worst of the crisis, in September to November 2008 and again in February to March 2009, these spreads skyrocketed to dizzying heights. Since then, they have fallen remarkably, providing direct evidence that the Fed’s cure is working.
If the Senate fails to confirm Bernanke, it will further politicize the Fed and disrupt the growing confidence in the financial markets that underpin a healthy economy. People who expect instant gratification and instant recovery from one of the worst potential recessions in modern global history shouldn’t be given the encouragement that is better placed with the leaders our precarious recovery.
[update]: Senate Confirms Bernanke 70-30. That is a lot of no votes but the important thing is he was reappointed.
On Political Independents (i.e. closet partisans)
Few things aggravate me more than pure partisanship. People who only side with the Democrats or Republicans make politics into a football match rather than a governing process to best serve the interests of the nation. However the reality is that even among self-identified “independents” astonishingly few actually are independent. Other than about 10% of the US population most “independents” really act just like partisans. A blog post at The Monkey Cage fills us in on what political scientists have known for decades.
The number of pure independents is actually quite small — perhaps 10% or so of the population. And this number has been decreasing, not increasing, since the mid-1970s.
Again, there is really no difference between partisans of either stripe and independent leaners. As far as their views of Obama are concerned, it doesn’t really matter whether you say you’re a Democrat or an independent who leans Democrats, and the same is true on the other side of the aisle. Only “pure” independent appear to have evenly divided attitudes as of November, but, as above, these people are only a very small part of the sample — 7% overall.
The Senate Bill, only for those who don’t like the status quo
No one who has examined our current healthcare delivery and finance system believes it is worth preserving. Jonathan Rauch, in National Journal magazine, makes the case for passing the Senate Bill, which despite its flaws, is much better than nothing.
Moreover, after reform is enacted, the taboo on taxing employer-provided health benefits will be shattered once and for all. From then on the question will be how much to tax, not whether. A door that had been welded shut will have been pried open. The country will be able to have a new kind of discussion, one in which the tying of health insurance to employment — which is insane, when you think about it — is no longer sacrosanct.[...]As health costs rise, more employer-provided health plans become taxable, giving employers an incentive to find cheaper plans. As employer-provided plans grow less generous, more employees have an incentive to take a tax credit and shop around, and, as premiums rise, more qualify to do so. Little by little, insurance coverage shifts toward an individual-based, consumer-driven market. And the faster health insurance costs rise, the faster the transition happens. The disease triggers its own antibodies.
Again, no guarantees. The transition would be very gradual, and political blowback could easily disrupt it. But the point is that the reform contains a pathway to sanity. No one can say that about the status quo.
Facebook Throwdown, part 6
Bill
Now, I’ll give you this, the Republicans should not be fooled into thinking that the backlash on the Democrats is a mandate for a return to Bush policy either. This backlash and the Tea Party agenda which you wrongly paint, is founded on the same principles that voted the Republicans out!! What I see in this swing in public opinion back and forth between one party and another is a cry from the people (and the majority being Independents) for good government! It is not a cry in supprt for one party over another. Both are to blame. Rather this cry insists that both parties begin to transcend politics and begin doing what is good for the country. Not good for elections, not good for special interest, not good for ideology, but what is good for the country. Surly to agree on what is good for the country is difficult to agree upon, but common sense and majority voting by like minded people can prevail.
Now this is where you and I come in. We mustn’t fall into this divide and conquer trap and we mustn’t fall prey to the perpetuation of caustic politics. So I must apologize for inflaming you, but my intent, honestly, is not to be an apologist for the Republican party, but rather to help provide some insight. Besides, debate is important and I love to argue. However, if I didn’t respect what you are saying, I wouldn’t be wasting my time. So let me end by saying thank you. You have provided me with much insight that I will fairly carry forward with me. We might agree to disagree on some issues. I truly believe that liberalism is killing this country, but there are components of the far right that greatly disturb me, particularly the religious right and their stand on social issues such as abortion and gay marriage. Pat Robertson’s recent remarks about Haiti made me puke my coffee out my nose. Liberalism and Religiosity-two great evils that are not only dividing and conquering our country, but are diminishing the individualism that makes America great….but that’s a whole other topic I won’t belabor anyone with. Maybe on some level we can agree on some of this.
I’m glad you’ve given Obama the benefit of the doubt for where his heart is, I hope you will consider giving him a little more time and slack. It’s hard to know whether he’s only governed the way he has because of the seriousness of the recession coupled with it being his first year in office. He faces incredibly tough decisions and considering the stakes he, to me, seems like he’s done a decent job and at least hasn’t made any huge errors (which is saying a lot). He’s challenged the left wing in his party more than you may realize and I predict you’ll start seeing a more moderate president now that the recession is starting to temper.
We’ll have to agree to disagree, as you said, on the tea parties; any group that looks up to Sarah Palin as a serious leader doesn’t deserve much regard. But to end this on some notes of agreement. I too love to argue and enjoy its benefits to help sharpen and clarify my thinking. I certainly respect what you are saying. Most especially, I think we agree on the dangers of the Christianists in this nation that seek to limit the freedoms of other citizens. Also, I’m no leftist and have battled them myself.
Finally, to me, healthcare expansion isn’t a leftist idea, it’s one based on economic security, moral responsibility, and economic mobility. A political philosopher once wrote on healthcare, “Nor is there any reason why the state should not assist the individuals in providing for those common hazards of life against which, because of their uncertainty, few individuals can make adequate provision…. Where, as in the case of sickness and accident, neither the desire to avoid such calamities nor the efforts to overcome their consequences are as a rule weakened by the provision of assistance – where, in short, we deal with genuinely insurable risks – the case for the state’s helping to organize a comprehensive system of social insurance is very strong… Wherever communal action can mitigate disasters against which the individual can neither attempt to guard himself nor make the provision for the consequences, such communal action should undoubtedly be taken.” That’s Friedrich von Hayek in “The Road to Serform” an anti-socialist classic.
Thanks for your time. We’ll do this again sometime when you’re feeling a little foolhardy. And Tony, did you make a decision on how you feel now yet? haha
Facebook Throwdown, part 5
Bill
Now enter Obama. All would agree that fiscal stimulus was in order. Spending is the only way to break the cycle of job loss-housing forclosure-ect., but there is responsible spending and there is irresponsible spending. Both may achieve a degree of the same effect, but not to the same extent. So its easy for you to claim success, but to what extent is conveniently ignored. So what does Pres O. do? He spends irresponsibly ( P.O.R.K.). Wall St. (thanks to Timmy G.and his cronies) are protected while Main St. continues to languish- deficits are cranked to the limit (which will be paid on the taxpayers back) and unemployment rises despite promises that it would not. O. does his world Apology Tour and leaves healthcare to a bunch of partisan ideologues. The Townhall “events” should have been crystal ball for all the liberal munchkins to see that all wasn’t well with Auntie Emm in Kansas.
Meanwhile, back at the State level, the Wicked Witch of the West, California,( being a primo example) faces alarming fiscal issues while their flying monkey liberal politicians want to keep spending, spending spending…pulling the straw out of the taxpayers and stifling economic growth. Multiply this times 52 and you have the perfect storm.
So the tornado finally hits… and the Wicked Witch of the East gets crushed…go figure.
The Wizard of O. needs to step back a little now. The curtain has been pulled. No longer can he hide behind his rhetoric (as you attempt to do). He has to face Dorothy-but she’s pretty pissed and has a big broom that she wants to clean house with.
Sure you give lip service to Bush not being a “fiscal conservative” which is true (and a tad late) but neither was basically the entire republican party which blew more money than LBJ. Of course, the dems aren’t fiscally conservative but don’t pretend the minority party is any different. Anyone reading this back-and-forth can’t help but notice that besides a quick throw-a-way that you really let the republicans off the hook. If you don’t, why would you think they deserve to be back in power? And just tangentially, why does it seem to me that you’re blaming the CBO more than the executive (including the pentagon and defense department) for the monetary cost of the wars? Such an odd direction of your ire.
“All would agree that fiscal stimulus was in order” I love that you can write this while blaming the democrats and excusing the republicans. Let me quote a writer I read somewhere, “Your kidding, right?” Feel free to confirm with me that ZERO republicans in the House and only 3 in the Senate voted for the stimulus package. I already said that it was poorly designed but the important thing was to break any potential spiraling liquidity cycle and get money into the economy – they could have buried money into a hole and paid companies to dig it up (not my original or recommended idea) and it would have been a help to the crisis we faced.
Town hall events, really? I suppose you’re also referring to the tea partys. All of a sudden these constitutionalist patriots (ha!) find their fiscal responsibility when Obama takes office in the middle of a recession. They’re an overly emotional populist frenzied farce. Where were they during your “incremental” unfunded prescription drug benefit entitlement? How incremental is TRILLIONS of dollars in a medicare expansion before the baby boomers retire (see: Bruce Bartlett, advisor to Reagan) by the Republicans in 2003? How is turning a huge surplus that could have been used to reform entitlements into a hemorrhaging debt not something that should be protested against, but passing a stimulus and saving our financial institutions during a recession and trying to reform (not replace or radically alter) the healthcare system to give Americans a sense of economic and medical security is? So Frank Baum, if you had the Republicans pulling back “the curtain,” might they just see a mirror?
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