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Belichick the Economist?

I was mighty depressed at the Patriots blowing the game to Manning and the Colts. I thought they should run on 3rd and 2. On 4th and 2 (although excited) I was shocked they were going for it. “Kick the ball, you’re on the 28!” Of course they didn’t succeed on that play and lost the game shortly after. But did that mean the decision was wrong? Not knowing the future, it is any coach’s job to give his team the best odds to win. Ignoring the specific plays called was it right for him statistically to go for it on 4th and 2 on their own 28? Bill Belichick studied economics in school and might have known what these economists/columnists/statisticians know.

Burke (H/T Adam!)
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