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And The Best Discipline Goes To…

Our first two nominees are: History and Economics. 
Everybody knows (side note: as I typed that line those exact words played in song I was listening to) the best way to settle questions like this is to look at trivial cases.  This year’s better picture oscar fits our criteria.  First, the nominees: 1. Avatar 2. The Blind Side 3. District 9 4. An Education 5. The Hurt Locker 6. Inglourious Basterds 7. Precious 8. A Serious Man 9. Up 10. Up in the Air

History’s Prediction:  Inglourious Basterds 

The remaining movies are Avatar, The Hurt LockerPrecious: Based on the Novel “Push” by SapphireUp in the Air, and Inglourious Basterds. Precious and Up in the Air are both R-rated dramas based on books, which looks promising, but with only six nominations each and both being dramas set in the present with running times of an hour and 50 minutes, they can be counted out. Avatar has the right running time (162 minutes) and the right number of nominations (nine) but it’s rated PG-13 and it’s science fiction (no science fiction movie has ever won best picture and only one fantasy film, Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, has ever won). That leaves us with The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds, both very long, R-rated war movies with nine and eight nominations, respectively. Based on the numbers, the advantage goes to Inglourious because it’s a period piece and it’s from a studio with an Oscar history, rather than The Hurt Locker, which is set in the present and is distributed by first-timer Summit Entertainment.

Economics’ Prediction:  The Hurt Locker 

Follow the prediction markets.  Right now, they suggest that the only close race is Best Picture, and the markets give a slight edge to The Hurt Locker, over Avatar.  

Stay tuned for the results.  Anyone have their own predictions?  Or better disciplines for predictions?  

[update 3/7]: Oscar the Grouch’s Prediction:  Up

Which film will win? The truth is: I don’t know and I don’t care! But if I had to pick something I’d go with “Up,” just cause I have a thing for entertainment geared towards rug rats.

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