Home > Deficit, Financial Times, Martin Wolf, Supply-Side Economics, Taxes > How Modern Conservatives Aren’t Like Hoover, ctd

How Modern Conservatives Aren’t Like Hoover, ctd

Martin Wolf explains the politically brilliant but economically preposterous idea that changed Republicans from minority to majority party and from conservative to “extreme radicals.”

Supply-side economics liberated conservatives from any need to insist on fiscal rectitude and balanced budgets. Supply-side economics said that one could cut taxes and balance budgets, because incentive effects would generate new activity and so higher revenue.

[…]

[T]he Republicans were transformed from a balanced-budget party to a tax-cutting party. This innovative stance proved highly politically effective, consistently putting the Democrats at a political disadvantage. 

[…]

Since the fiscal theory of supply-side economics did not work, the tax-cutting eras of Ronald Reagan and George H. Bush and again of George W. Bush saw very substantial rises in ratios of federal debt to gross domestic product. Under Reagan and the first Bush, the ratio of public debt to GDP went from 33 per cent to 64 per cent. It fell to 57 per cent under Bill Clinton. It then rose to 69 per cent under the second George Bush. Equally, tax cuts in the era of George W. Bush, wars and the economic crisis account for almost all the dire fiscal outlook for the next ten years (see the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities).

[…] 

This is extraordinarily dangerous. The danger does not arise from the fiscal deficits of today, but the attitudes to fiscal policy, over the long run, of one of the two main parties. Those radical conservatives (a small minority, I hope) who want to destroy the credit of the US federal government may succeed. If so, that would be the end of the US era of global dominance. The destruction of fiscal credibility could be the outcome of the policies of the party that considers itself the most patriotic.

 (emphasis is mine)

I couldn’t agree more on the danger of having a 1 of the 2 major political parties being completely untethered to economic reality. We don’t have a mainstream conservative opposition in America today – we’re poorer for it. 

(part 1)

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